IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Banking fragility and distress: An econometric study of macroeconomic determinants

  • Pesola , Jarmo

    ()

    (Bank of Finland Research)

Registered author(s):

    The macroeconomic determinants of banking sector distresses in the Nordic countries, Belgium, Ger-many, Greece, Spain and the UK are analysed using an econometric model estimated on panel data from partly the early 1980s to 2002. The dependent variable is the ratio of banks’ loan losses to lending. In ad-dition to the lagged dependent variable, the explanatory variables include a surprise change in incomes and real interest rates, both variables as a separate cross-product term with lagged aggregate indebtedness. The underlying macroeconomic account that this paper puts forward is that loan losses are basically gen-erated by strong adverse aggregate shocks under high exposure of banks to such shocks. The underlying innovations to income and real interest rates are constructed using published macro-economic forecast for these variables. According to the results, high customer indebtedness combined with adverse macroeco-nomic surprise shocks to income and real interest rates contributed to the distress in banking sector. Loan losses also display strong autoregressive behaviour which might indicate a feedback effect from loan losses back to macroeconomic level in deep recessions. The results can be used in macro stress-testing the banking sector.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0513netti.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 13/2005.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 100 pages
    Date of creation: 11 Jul 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_013
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset prices and banking distress: a macroeconomic approach," BIS Working Papers 167, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
    3. Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Boot, Arnoud & Thakor, Anjan (ed.), 2004. "Credit, Intermediation, and the Macroeconomy: Readings and Perspectives in Modern Financial Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199243068, March.
    4. DellAriccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hansen, Jan, 2003. "Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 149, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, EconWPA.
    7. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
    8. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Mahinder Singh Gill & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.