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Robust monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework

  • Leitemo, Kai


    (Norwegian School of Management (BI))

  • Söderström , Ulf


    (Department of Economics and IGIER, Università Bocconi)

We study the effects of model uncertainty in a simple New-Keynesian model using robust control techniques. Due to the simple model structure, we are able to find closed-form solutions for the robust control problem, analysing both instrument rules and targeting rules under different timing assumptions. In all cases but one, an increased preference for robustness makes monetary policy respond more aggressively to cost shocks but leaves the response to demand shocks unchanged. As a consequence, inflation is less volatile and output is more volatile than under a non-robust policy. Under one particular timing assumption, however, increasing the preference for robustness has no effect on the optimal targeting rule (nor on the economy).

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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 31/2004.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 13 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2004_031
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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  1. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 273, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Koskela , Erkki & Uusitalo , Roope, 2004. "Unintended convergence – how Finnish unemployment reached the European level," Research Discussion Papers 6/2004, Bank of Finland.
  5. Ellison, Martin & Sarno, Lucio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2004. "Monetary policy and learning in an open economy," Research Discussion Papers 3/2004, Bank of Finland.
  6. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Paloviita , Maritta & Mayes , David, 2004. "The use of real time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 16/2004, Bank of Finland.
  8. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, June.
  9. Söderström, Ulf, 2000. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 0013, European Central Bank.
  10. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.
  11. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
  12. Allen N. Berger & Iftekhar Hasan & Leora F. Klapper, 2004. "Further evidence on the link between finance and growth: An international analysis of community banking and economic performance," Finance 0404017, EconWPA.
  13. Mayes , David G. & Virén , Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
  14. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
  15. Guse, Eran, 2004. "Expectational business cycles," Research Discussion Papers 19/2004, Bank of Finland.
  16. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kauppi , Heikki & Koskela , Erkki & Stenbacka , Rune, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment and investment under product and labour market imperfections," Research Discussion Papers 11/2004, Bank of Finland.
  18. Castrén, Olli & Takalo , Tuomas & Wood , Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Research Discussion Papers 22/2004, Bank of Finland.
  19. Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo , Tuomas, 2004. "Multihoming in the market for payment media: evidence from young Finnish consumers," Research Discussion Papers 25/2004, Bank of Finland.
  20. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2003. "Modeling Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1087-1122, 09.
  21. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  23. David G. Mayes, 2004. "An approach to bank insolvency in transition and emerging economies," Finance 0404015, EconWPA.
  24. Berthold Herrendorf & Arilton Teixeira, 2004. "Monopoly rights can reduce income big time," Macroeconomics 0404023, EconWPA.
  25. Walsh, Carl E, 2004. "Robustly Optimal Instrument Rules and Robust Control: An Equivalence Result," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1105-13, December.
  26. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February.
  27. Schaling , Eric & Eijffinger , Sylvester & Tesfaselassie , Mewael, 2004. "Heterogeneous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
  28. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Jokivuolle , Esa & Lanne , Markku, 2004. "Trading Nokia: The roles of the Helsinki vs the New York stock exchanges," Research Discussion Papers 26/2004, Bank of Finland.
  30. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
  31. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland.
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