Expectational business cycles
I introduce Expectational Business Cycles where aggregate activity fluctuates due to learning, heterogeneous updating rules and random changes in the social norm predictor. Agents use one of two updating rules to learn the equilibrium values while heterogeneity is dictated via an evolutionary process. Uncertainty of a new equilibrium, due to a shock to the structure of the economy, results in a sudden decrease in output. As agents learn the equilibrium, output slowly increases to its equilibrium value. These business cycles arrive faster, are longer and more severe as agents possess less rationality.
|Date of creation:||12 Oct 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grandmont Jean-michel & Laroque G, 1990. "Economic dynamics with learning : some instability examples," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9007, CEPREMAP.
- Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998.
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
- Moreno Diego & Walker Mark, 1994. "Two Problems in Applying Ljung's Projection Algorithms to the Analysis of Decentralized Learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 420-427, April.
- Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
- Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Fluctuations in confidence and asymmetric business cycles," Staff Reports 66, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006.
"Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogeneous agents," Working Paper Series 0120, European Central Bank.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series 772, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997.
"Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems,"
97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Timothy Cogley, .
"How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth,"
2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006.
"The Conquest of South American Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2003.
"Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles,"
03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Guse, E., 2005.
"Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0547, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Eran Guse, 2004. "Learning with Heterogeneous Expectations in an Evolutionary World," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 99, Society for Computational Economics.
- Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001.
"Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Kenneth Kasa, 2000.
"Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
- Kenneth Kasa, 1995. "Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- William Poole, 2002.
49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
- Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2004_019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.