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Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift

  • Lanne, Markku

    ()

    (University of Helsinki)

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is tested using monthly Eurodollar deposit rates for maturities 1, 3 and 6 months covering the period 1983:1–1996:6. Whereas classical regression-based tests indicate rejection, tests based on a new model allowing for potential – but unrealized – regime shifts provide support for the expectations hypothesis. The peso problem is modelled by means of a threshold autoregression. The estimation results suggest that potential regime shift had an effect on expectations concerning the longer-term interest rate only for a short while in the early phase of the sample period, when interest rates were at their highest.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/9920.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 20/1999.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 21 Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1999_020
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  2. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Jääskelä, Jarkko & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Anticipated Monetary Policy and the Dynamic Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Discussion Papers 12/1999, Bank of Finland.
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986. "Power in Econometric Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Markku Lanne, 1999. "Near Unit Roots And The Predictive Power Of Yield Spreads For Changes In Long-Term Interest Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 393-398, August.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti & Ripatti, Antti, 1999. "On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Research Discussion Papers 6/1999, Bank of Finland.
  10. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
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  12. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  13. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  14. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
  15. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Kugler, Peter, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates and regime shifts: Some empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-126, January.
  17. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
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