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Stock Return Volatility on Scandinavian Stock Markets and the Banking Industry

  • Hyytinen, Ari

    ()

    (Bank of Finland)

This paper investigates the evolution of the (conditional) volatility of returns on three Scandinavian markets (Finland, Norway and Sweden) over the turbulent period of the past decade, namely the overlapping periods of financial liberalisation, drastically changing macroeconomic conditions and banking crisis. We find that even over this relatively turbulent period volatility is in most cases successfully captured by past volatility and shocks to past volatility, ie by a (symmetric) GARCH process. In each country banking crisis has induced regime shifts in (unconditional) volatility. We also find evidence for cross-country volatility spillovers during the banking crisis episodes. The estimated volatility patterns suggest that even though the volatility of returns was of very high magnitude during the years of banking crisis, developments within the banking industry were not reflected in market uncertainty until all the damage had been done and the severe problems afflicting banks began to be realised in full.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/9919.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 19/1999.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 20 Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1999_019
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/

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  1. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
  2. Donald P. Morgan, 1999. "Whether and why banks are opaque," Proceedings 636, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Haiyan Song & Xiaming Liu & Peter Romilly, 1998. "Stock Returns and Volatility: an empirical study of Chinese stock markets," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 129-139.
  5. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
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  10. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
  11. Poon, Winnie P. H. & Firth, Michael & Fung, Hung-Gay, 1999. "A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 267-283, August.
  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  13. E Philip Davis, 1999. "Financial data needs for macroprudential surveillance - What are the key indicators of risks to domestic financial stability?," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 2.
  14. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
  15. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 118-38, Supplemen.
  16. Olan Henry, 1998. "Modelling the asymmetry of stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 145-153.
  17. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
  18. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  19. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J., 1999. "Structural change and time dependence in models of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-308, September.
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