Forecasting the Electronification of Payments with Learning Curves: The Case of Finland
This paper examines the electronification of noncash payments in Finland and the extent to which noncash payment means are used as substitutes for cash. We model the processes of cash substitution and electronification of payments as 'S'-shaped learning curves and generate forecasts by extrapolating these curves. The 'S'-shaped learning curves fit the data well. Our results indicate that in Finland the cash substitution process as a whole is approaching the saturation point. Although the electronification process is clearly ongoing as regards larger-value bill payments, for small-value point-of-sale payments we seem to have reached saturation. Electronification of payments, having progressed swiftly and extensively in Finland, is already beginning to slow down. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the reasons for this turn of events and of the different factors that affect the speed of diffusion of new means of payment.
|Date of creation:||20 Jul 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
- Young, Peg & Ord, J. Keith, 1989. "Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 501-513.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Product Compatibility Choice in a Market with Technological Progress," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(0), pages 146-65, Suppl. No.
- Kauko, Karlo, 1998. "Developing the Interbank Payment System. Efficiency of Public versus Private Investments," Research Discussion Papers 28/1998, Bank of Finland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1999_008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.