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Determinants of real exchange rates: An empirical investigation

  • Kakkar, Vikas

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Yan, Isabel

    ()

    (BOFIT)

Registered author(s):

    The large and persistent deviations of nominal exchange rates from their purchasing power parities comprise a key stylized fact in international economics. This paper sheds light on these persistent deviations by combining two disparate strands of empirical work. The first strand focuses on real economic shocks such as sectoral technology shocks suggested by the celebrated Balassa-Samuelson model, whereas the second strand emphasizes monetary shocks which create persistent effects on both the real interest rate and the real exchange rate. We also hypothesize a third factor which may affect real exchange rates – shocks to the global financial system, which we proxy by the real price of gold. Although each factor in isolation has limited explanatory power, we find that these three factors in conjunction can successfully explain the medium to long run move-ments in 14 bilateral U.S. dollar real exchange rates from 1970 to 2006. The three factors are sectoral total factor productivity differentials, real interest rate differentials, and the real price of gold, representing real shocks, monetary shocks, and shocks to the global financial system, respectively. We document evidence suggesting that bilateral U.S. dollar real ex-change rates are cointegrated with these three factors.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/2014/dp0114.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 1/2014.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: 08 Jan 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2014_001
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
    Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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    1. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "The Importance of Nontradeable Goods' Prices in Cyclical Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    8. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Vikas Kakkar & Isabel Yan, 2012. "Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 301-322, 03.
    12. Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    17. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    18. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
    20. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
    21. Alastair Thomas & Alan King, 2008. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in the Asia-Pacific Region Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 127-141, 02.
    22. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
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    25. Vikas Kakkar, 2003. "The Relative Price of Nontraded Goods and Sectoral Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 444-452, May.
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