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China’s capital controls – Through the prism of covered interest differentials

  • Herrala, Risto

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong

    ()

    (BOFIT)

We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential – an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China’s policy.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/2013/dp2213.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 22/2013.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2013_022
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. Herrala, Risto & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2013. "China’s capital controls – Through the prism of covered interest differentials," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1982. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1999. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,88, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  14. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
  15. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, 05.
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