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Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets

  • Ponomarenko, Alexey

    ()

    (BOFIT)

We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset prices, real activity (especially investment) and financial (especially credit) indicators is generally found to be efficacious.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/2012/dp2212.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 22/2012.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 02 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_022
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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  1. Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Print halshs-00372728, HAL.
  2. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004245, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
  4. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, . "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Borradores de Economia 608, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Balázs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2152, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Balázs Égert & Reiner Martin, 2008. "Real Estate, Construction and Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Impact on Competitiveness?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-72.
  9. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 103, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  10. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
  11. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  12. Bunda, Irina & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2009. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Working Paper Series 1094, European Central Bank.
  13. Gardó, Sándor & Martin, Reiner, 2010. "The impact of the global economic and financial crisis on central, eastern and south-eastern Europe: A stock-taking exercise," Occasional Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
  14. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
  16. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
  17. Kim, Soyoung & Yang, Doo Yong, 2008. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Emerging East Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 15, Asian Development Bank.
  18. AndrewK. Rose & MarkM. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, 08.
  19. Vahram Stepanyan & Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 10/104, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Sophie Brana & Marie-Louise Djigbenou & Stéphanie Prat, 2012. "Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach," Larefi Working Papers 1203, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
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  23. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank.
  24. Borgy, V. & Clerc, L. & Renne, J-P., 2009. "Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?," Working papers 263, Banque de France.
  25. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
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