No coupling, no decoupling, only mutual inter-dependence: Business cycles in emerging vs. mature economies
Even before the events of the past few years, economists and policy makers were musing about the apparent contradiction between globalization, as it is generally understood, and the seemingly different paths in overall economic activity taken by the emerging and more mature economies of the world. The present paper reconsiders whether it is, in fact, useful to think of correlations in business cycle movements as reflecting some form of coupling or decoupling and, instead, suggests that, even if business cycles may well have become more synchronous for a time, it is more useful to think of international business cycle co-movements as reflecting their mutual dependence that can be subjected to short-run interruptions or affected by a variety of other economic factors. I report evidence based on factor-augmented quantile regressions for a panel of annual data since 1980 from 9 regions of the world. A panel is used to estimate the common factors which are then applied to the quantile regression model to determine the sources of business cycle co-movements across countries and regions of the world.
|Date of creation:||03 Sep 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland|
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Siklos, P.L. & Granger, C.W.J., 1997.
"Regime Sensitive Cointegration with an Application to Interest rate Parity,"
97-5, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005.
"What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions,"
NBER Working Papers
11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
- Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Chinn,M.D. & Ito,H., 2005. "What matters for financial development? : capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Working papers 4, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005.
"Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
- Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006.
"Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Galor, Oded, 1996.
"Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005.
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, june. pag.
- Mumtaz, Haroon & Simonelli, Saverio & Surico, Paolo, 2009.
"International comovements, business cycle and inflation: a historical perspective,"
28, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2009. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," CSEF Working Papers 233, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Dong He & Wei Liao, 2011.
"Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation,"
062011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Päivi Määttä)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.