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Bank stress tests as an information device for emerging markets: The case of Russia

  • Fungácová, Zuzana

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Jakubík, Petr

    (BOFIT)

The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from limited data availability, short time series and structural breaks. We propose a top-down stress test methodology that employs relatively limited information to overcome this data problem. Moreover, as credit growth in emerging economies tends to be rather volatile, we rely on dynamic approach projecting key balance sheet items. Application of our proposed stress test framework to the Russian banking sector reveals a high sensitivity of the capital adequacy ratio to the economic cycle that shows up in both of the two-year macroeconomic scenarios considered: a baseline and an adverse one. Both scenarios indicate the need for capital increase in the Russian banking sector. Furthermore, given that Russia’s banking sector is small and fragmented relative to advanced economies, the loss of external financing can cause profound economic stress, especially for medium-sized and small enterprises. The Russian state has a low public debt-to-GDP ratio and plays decisive role in the banking sector. These factors allow sufficient fiscal space for recapitalisation of problematic banks under both of our proposed baseline and adverse scenarios.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/2012/dp0312.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 3/2012.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_003
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
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Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
  2. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2008. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: an economic value and capital adequacy perspective," Bank of England working papers 339, Bank of England.
  3. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Michaela Posch & Stefan W. Schmitz & Beat Weber, 2009. "EU Bank Packages: Objectives and Potential Conflicts of Objectives," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 17, pages 63-84.
  5. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
  6. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Michael Boss & Martin Fenz & Johannes Pann & Claus Puhr & Martin Schneider & Eva Ubl, 2009. "Modeling Credit Risk through the Austrian Business Cycle: An Update of the OeNB Model," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 17, pages 85-101.
  8. Ian Levely, 2012. "Measuring Intermediate Outcomes of Liberia’s DDRR Program," Working Papers IES 2012/2, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
  9. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
  10. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  11. Vernikov, Andrei, 2009. "Russian banking: The state makes a comeback?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Financial Sector Assessment : A Handbook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7259, June.
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