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De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights

  • Fang, Ying

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Huang, Shicheng

    (BOFIT)

  • Niu, Linlin

    (BOFIT)

We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the reference basket announced by the Chinese government. We find the dollar weight has been reduced and sometimes significantly smaller than one, but there is no evidence of systematic operation of a currency basket with discernable pattern of significant weights on other currencies. During specific periods, the reduced dollar weight has not been switched to other major international currencies, but to some East Asian currencies, which is hard to explain by trade importance to or trade competition with China. We examine currency baskets of these East Asian Economies, including major international currencies and the RMB in their baskets. We find an evident tendency of Malaysia and Singapore to increase the weights of RMB in their own currency baskets, and a steadily and significantly positive weight of RMB in the basket of Thailand. These evidences suggest that, the positive weights of some East Asian currencies in RMB currency basket during specific periods largely reflect the fact that these East Asia economies have been systematically placing greater weights on RMB under the new regime of RMB exchange rate.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/2012/dp0212.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 2/2012.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_002
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. Zongwu Cai & Linna Chen & and Ying Fang, 2013. "A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  2. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(4), pages 515-529, December.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 6264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," MPRA Paper 32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 14700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eiji Ogawa & Michiru Sakane, 2006. "Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(6), pages 39-57.
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