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Off-the-record target zones: Theory with an application to Hong Kong's currency board

  • Chen, Yu-Fu

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Funke, Michael

    (BOFIT)

  • Glanemann, Nicole

    (BOFIT)

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/DP0610.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 6/2010.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 26 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2010_006
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Glanemann, Nicole, 2009. "A soft edge target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Gerlach, Stefan, 2005. "Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1119-1135, January.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  9. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521485845 is not listed on IDEAS
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