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McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy

  • Mehrotra, Aaron



  • Koivu, Tuuli



  • Nuutilainen, Riikka


This paper evaluates the usefulness of a McCallum monetary policy rule based on money supply for maintaining price stability in mainland China. We examine whether excess money relative to rulebased values provides information that improves the forecasting of price developments. The results suggest that our monetary variable helps in predicting both consumer and corporate goods price inflation, but the results for consumer prices depend on the forecasting period. Nevertheless, growth of the Chinese monetary base has tracked the McCallum rule quite closely. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that our measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy.

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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 15/2008.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_015
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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  1. Mehrotra , Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "Forecasting Inflation in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  3. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
  4. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
  5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  6. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  7. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  10. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766.
  11. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
  12. Goodhart, Charles & Boris Hofmann, 2002. "Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 88, Royal Economic Society.
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