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Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China

  • Koivu, Tuuli

    ()

    (BOFIT)

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    Chinese authorities have traditionally relied mainly on administrative and quantitative measures in conducting monetary policy, with interest rates playing a less prominent role. Additional support for this view resides in a number of earlier studies that have found that the impact of interest rates on the real economy has been miniscule. However, taking into account numerous reforms in the financial sector and more widely in the Chinese economy, interest rates may have gained some influence in the last few years. It is important to study the effectiveness of interest rates also in light of future reforms of the monetary policy tools in China. Whereas administrative policy measures were effective in guiding the behaviour of state-owned enterprises, the authorities may need to increase the use of more market-oriented monetary policy tools as the share of the economy in private and foreign ownership grows. We use a vector error correction model to study, within a credit demand framework, whether the impact of interest rates in China has become stronger over the last decade. Our results suggest that loan demand has indeed become more dependent on interest rates, albeit the channel from interest rate to the real economy is still weak.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/DP0108.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 1/2008.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: 03 Apr 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_001
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    1. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era - Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Aaron Mehrotra, 2008. "Demand for Money in Transition: Evidence from China’s Disinflation," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, February.
    4. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    5. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    6. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Progress in China'S Banking Sector Reform; Has Bank Behavior Changed?," IMF Working Papers 06/71, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
    9. Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China; Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
    11. Fung, Michael Ka-Yiu & Ho, Wai-Ming & Zhu, Lijing, 2000. "The Impact of Credit Control and Interest Rate Regulation on the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of Long-Run Effects," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 293-320, June.
    12. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, March.
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