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Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?

  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia

    (BOFIT)

  • Koivu, Tuuli

    ()

    (http://www.bof.fi/bofit)

Registered author(s):

    This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi. By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall. This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'. We find, in turn, that imports from Germany – which serve China’s domestic demand – behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation. All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi’s upward trajectory.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp0607.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 6/2007.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 19 Mar 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2007_006
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    1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Jayanthi, Sarma & Lee, Jaewoo, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," CEPR Discussion Papers 5860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    3. Jaime Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
    5. Willem THORBECKE, 2006. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Discussion papers 06009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
    8. Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "The Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Manufacturing Profits: A Theoreti- cal Framework With Some Empirical Support," NBER Working Papers 3811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
    10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Yue, Changjun & Hua, Ping, 2002. "Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 276-296.
    12. Jaime Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    13. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
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