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Selecting inflation indicators under an inflation targeting regime: evidence from the MCL method

  • Koskinen, Juha-Pekka

    ()

    (University of Technology)

  • Koivu, Tuuli

    ()

    (BOFIT)

  • Chowdhury, Abdur

    ()

    (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by analyzing inflation in Poland, one of only two transition economies that have adopted a strict inflation-targeting policy. The paper also introduces a new method for selecting inflation indicators. Consistent with the earlier literature, empirical results find a strong link between the producer price index and consumer price index in Poland. This shows the importance of the manufacturing sector in determining the price level in the country. Overall, wages, broad money supply and the exchange rate are good indicators of inflation.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/dp1604.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition in its series BOFIT Discussion Papers with number 16/2004.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2004_016
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Phone: + 358 10 831 2268
Fax: + 358 10 831 2294
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/
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  1. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mishkin, F.S., 1998. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Papers 648, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modeling inflation in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 375-385, August.
  6. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Thierry Pujol & Mark E. L. Griffiths, 1996. "Moderate Inflation in Poland; A Real Story," IMF Working Papers 96/57, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter? - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 149-154.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jan Gottschalk & David Moore, 1999. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes ; The Case of Poland," Kiel Working Papers 956, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Republic of Poland; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/128, International Monetary Fund.
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