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Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices

  • Noufel Frikha

    ()

    (PMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS : UMR7599 - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI - Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII)

  • Vincent Lemaire

    ()

    (PMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS : UMR7599 - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI - Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII)

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    The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Ornstein processes with parameterized diffusion coefficients. Moreover, using the empirical distributions of the spot prices, we derive a class of such parameterized diffusions which captures the most salient statistical properties: stationarity, spikes and heavy-tailed distributions. The associated calibration procedure is based on standard and efficient statistical tools. We calibrate the model on French market for electricity and on UK market for gas, and then simulate some trajectories which reproduce well the observed prices behavior. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the correlation structure and of the presence of spikes by measuring the risk on a power plant portfolio.

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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00421289.

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    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00421289
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00421289/en/
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