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Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms

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  • Sandra Poncet

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Jérôme Héricourt

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé)

Abstract

This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the 2000-2006 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that the value exported by firms, as well as their probability of entering new export markets, decrease for destinations with a higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development seems to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide micro-founded evidence that financial constraints may play a key role in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Poncet & Jérôme Héricourt, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-00960664, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseose:halshs-00960664
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00960664
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Financial development; Exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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