IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01663129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Lopez
  • Anne-Laure Delatte

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement is: (i) symmetric and occurring most of the time, (ii) symmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events and (iii) asymmetric and occurring mostly during extreme events. We also allow for this dependence to be time-varying from January 1990 to February 2012. Our analysis uncovers three major stylized facts. First, we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying, symmetric and occurs most of the time (as opposed to mostly in extreme events). Second, not allowing for time-varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias toward evidence of tail dependence. Similarly, considering only tail dependence may lead to wrong evidence of asymmetry. Third, a growing comovement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as in 2003, a comovement that spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after Fall 2008.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Lopez & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2014. "Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach," Post-Print hal-01663129, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01663129
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01663129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
    2. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2332 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    5. Thierry Ane & Cecile Kharoubi, 2003. "Dependence Structure and Risk Measure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 411-438, July.
    6. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    7. Desmoulins-Lebeault, François & Kharoubi-Rakotomalala, Cécile, 2012. "Non-Gaussian diversification: When size matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1987-1996.
    8. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    9. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    10. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    11. Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas Maystre, 2013. "The synchronized and long-lasting structural change on commodity markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Algorithmic Finance, IOS Press, vol. 2(3-4), pages 233-239.
    12. Robert W. Kolb, 1992. "Is normal backwardation normal?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 75-91, February.
    13. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    14. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    16. Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
    17. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
    2. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    3. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 334-354.
    4. Grundke, Peter & Polle, Simone, 2012. "Crisis and risk dependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 518-528.
    5. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    6. Sim, Nicholas, 2016. "Modeling the dependence structures of financial assets through the Copula Quantile-on-Quantile approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 31-45.
    7. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chi-Hung & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Industry co-movements of American depository receipts: Evidences from the copula approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 301-314.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13359 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sehgal, Sanjay & Pandey, Piyush & Diesting, Florent, 2017. "Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 173-190.
    11. Charlot, Philippe & Darné, Olivier & Moussa, Zakaria, 2016. "Commodity returns co-movements: Fundamentals or “style” effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 130-160.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sercan Demiralay & Selcuk Bayraci & H. Gaye Gencer, 2019. "Time-varying diversification benefits of commodity futures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1823-1853, June.
    14. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2013. "Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 361-377.
    15. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula," Working Papers 2015_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1596-1609, September.
    17. Daniel Cupriak & Katarzyna Kuziak & Tomasz Popczyk, 2020. "Risk Management Opportunities between Socially Responsible Investments and Selected Commodities," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    19. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: Implications for portfolio investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 183-200.
    20. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
    21. Aepli, Matthias D. & Füss, Roland & Henriksen, Tom Erik S. & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2017. "Modeling the multivariate dynamic dependence structure of commodity futures portfolios," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 66-87.
    22. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    [No keyword available];

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01663129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.