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Le rôle des stocks en sortie de crise : Une étude empirique sur données d’enquête

Author

Listed:
  • Frédérique Bec

    (CREST-INSEE - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique)

  • Mélika Ben Salem

    () (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)

  • Marie Bessec

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)

Abstract

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Community opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing. A threshold autoregression allowing for a transitory strong recovery phasis is estimated for French, German and European aggregate data from 1985q1 to 2011q4. The results support the existence of a high recovery episode for inventory investment during the quarters immediately following the recessions. This could in turn explain the real GDP growth rate bounce-back pointed out in previous empirical studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marie Bessec, 2012. "Le rôle des stocks en sortie de crise : Une étude empirique sur données d’enquête," Post-Print hal-01515621, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01515621
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01515621
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    Keywords

    Threshold autoregression; business cycles; inventory investment; Modèle auto-régressif à seuil; cycles conjoncturels; variations de stocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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