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Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution: comment s'ajuster en union monétaire?

Listed author(s):
  • Jacques Mazier

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Duwicquet

    ()

    (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Saadaoui

La crise de la zone euro illustre les carences des mécanismes d’ajustement dans une union monétaire caractérisée par une forte hétérogénéité. Cette situation reflète un diagnostic simple. Au niveau de l’ensemble de la zone, l’euro est proche de son taux d’équilibre. Mais l’euro est fortement surévalué pour les pays d’Europe du Sud, y compris la France, et largement sous-évalué pour les pays d’Europe du Nord, en particulier l’Allemagne (Jeong et al., 2010). Dans un premier temps, cet article donne une évaluation de ces mésalignements de change au sein de la zone euro, en utilisant une approche FEER. De plus, en utilisant des données de panel sur la période 1994-2010, nous confirmons que les mésalignements de taux de change ont divergé, reflétant des évolutions insoutenables. Enfin, nous estimons les augmentations ou les réductions de coûts en pourcentage du PIB induits par ces désajustements pour les différents pays européens. Dans un second temps, nous utilisons une modélisation « stock-flux cohérente » à deux pays d’une union monétaire dans la lignée de Godley et Lavoie (2007) et de Duwicquet et Mazier (2010). Un budget fédéral est introduit avec des dépenses fédérales et des transferts sociaux financés par des impôts fédéraux et par l’émission d’euro-obligations. Le rôle stabilisateur d’un tel budget fédéral est confirmé face à des chocs asymétriques au sein de l’union. Parallèlement, le rôle stabilisateur d’euro-obligations destinées à des projets d’investissement est illustré.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-01367464.

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Date of creation: 2013
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2013, 127, pp.57-93. <10.3917/reof.127.0057>
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01367464
DOI: 10.3917/reof.127.0057
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-paris13.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01367464
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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