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The Influence of Local and National Economic Conditions on French Legislative Elections

  • Antoine Auberger

    ()

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Eric Dubois

    ()

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

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File URL: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/80/06/38/PDF/auberger_and_dubois2.pdf
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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number hal-00800638.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Public Choice, 2005, 125, 3-4, 363
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00800638
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00800638
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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  1. Abrams, Burton A & Butkiewicz, James L, 1995. " The Influence of State-Level Economic Conditions on the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-10, October.
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