Gasto público, crecimiento económico y bienestar social bajo el efecto moderador del ahorro externo: la experiencia Mexicana

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the public spending effects on economic growth and social welfare in Mexico by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is used two alternative closure rules for foreign saving: 1) foreign saving is exogenous and restricted: saving determines investment, and 2) foreign saving is endogenous and unrestricted, investment determines saving. The results suggest that behavior of foreign saving (by two alternative closure rules) moderates the relationship between public spending and economic growth and social welfare with different effects (asymmetric) for various instruments of public spending. An increase in public spending –with unrestricted foreign saving--generates higher economic growth and greater social welfare, although fiscal balance and current account deficit become worse (postkeynesian approach). In absence of variations of foreign savings, government spending affects neither economic growth nor social welfare, only there is an imbalance fiscal stance (neoclassical stance).