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Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Grauvogel

    () (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies)

  • Christian von Soest

    () (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies)

Abstract

International sanctions have been one of the most commonly used tools of Western foreign policy in the post-Cold War era to instigate democratization globally. However, despite long-term external pressure through sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, nondemocratic rule in cases such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and Syria has proven to be extremely persistent. In this paper, we analyze a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011 and assess which international and domestic factors account for the persistence of nondemocratic rule in targeted regimes. The results of a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 120 episodes of sanctions provide new insights for the research on both sanctions and authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen nondemocratic rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such a “rally-round-the-flag” effect occurs most often in cases where comprehensive sanctions targeting the entire population are imposed on regimes that enjoy strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited linkages to the sanction sender.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Grauvogel & Christian von Soest, 2013. "Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," GIGA Working Paper Series 235, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gig:wpaper:235
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    File URL: http://www.giga-hamburg.de/de/system/files/publications/wp235_grauvogel-soest.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Irfan Nooruddin & Autumn Lockwood Payton, 2010. "Dynamics of influence in international politics: The ICC, BIAs, and economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 711-721, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seitz, William & Presbitero, Andrea & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2017. "Sanctions and public opinion : the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," IDE Discussion Papers 652, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Anastasia Kazun, 2016. "Rally-Around-The-Flag and the Media: Case of Economic Sanctions in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 33/PS/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    Keywords

    sanctions; claims to legitimacy; authoritarian regimes; democratization;

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