IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gen/geneem/2009.06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure using Three-Regime Threshold Unit Root VECM

Author

Listed:
  • Jaya Krishnakumar
  • David Neto

Abstract

In this paper a three-regime multivariate threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) with a "band of inaction" is formulated to examine the expectation hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates and uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) for U.S. and Swiss rates. Tests for no cointegration and for the number of cointegrating relationships are discussed within the framework of this TVECM with more than one cointegrating relationship, allowing for the possibility of a fewer number of cointegrating relations in one regime compared to the other. Our results conclude that all the three possible cointegrating relations are accepted that is consistent with both the UIRP and EHTS hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure using Three-Regime Threshold Unit Root VECM," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2009.06, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  • Handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:2009.06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unige.ch/ses/dsec/repec/files/2009_06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    3. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    4. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    5. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Estimation and Testing for the Cointegration Rank in a Threshold Cointegrated System," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2009.01, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    6. González, M. & Gonzalo, Jesús, 1997. "Threshold unit root models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6214, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2006. "Unit root tests in three-regime SETAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 252-278, July.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Specification via model selection in vector error correction models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 321-328, September.
    9. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
    10. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    11. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    13. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Empirical Results for the U.S. and Europe," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    14. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    17. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    20. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
    21. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    22. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
    23. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
    24. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    26. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Omer, Muhammad & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "Does Uncovered Interest rate Parity Hold After All?," MPRA Paper 47572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David Neto, 2015. "Testing for and dating structural break in smooth time-varying cointegration parameters, with an application to retail gasoline price and crude oil price long-run relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 909-928, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:2009.06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.unige.ch/gsem/dsec/index.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.