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Estimation and Testing for the Cointegration Rank in a Threshold Cointegrated System

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  • Jaya Krishnakumar
  • David Neto

Abstract

The paper generalises estimation and inference procedures for a threshold VECM with more than one cointegrating relation. We derive estimators of long-run parameters and loading factors by means of a reduced rank regression. We provide their asymptotic distributions and propose a testing procedure for the cointegrating rank. The asymptotic distributions of our test statistics are derived and tabulated. In order to improve finite sample inference, we also compute bootstrap approximation to the distribution of our test statistics. Monte-Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of our test and its power. We apply our methodology to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of U.S. interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Estimation and Testing for the Cointegration Rank in a Threshold Cointegrated System," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2009.01, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  • Handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:2009.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    2. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
    3. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    4. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    5. Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    8. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    10. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
    11. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rezitis Anthony N & Stavropoulos Konstantinos S, 2011. "Price Transmission and Volatility in the Greek Broiler Sector: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, July.
    2. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure using Three-Regime Threshold Unit Root VECM," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2009.06, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    3. Götz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2013. "Export Restrictions and Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156135, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2012. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure Using a Three‐regime Threshold Unit Root VECM: An Application to the Swiss ‘Isle’ of Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 180-202, April.
    5. Makram El-Shagi, 2011. "An evolutionary algorithm for the estimation of threshold vector error correction models," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 341-362, December.
    6. Clegg, Matthew & Krauss, Christopher, 2016. "Pairs trading with partial cointegration," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    8. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1243-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:358-365 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "The Law of One Price under State-Dependent Policy Intervention: An Application to the Ukrainian Wheat Market," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124904, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Export Restrictions And Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria When International Prices Spike: Export Quotas For Wheat In Ukraine," 2012: New Rules of Trade?, December 2012, San Diego, California 143179, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

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