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Demand for Football and Intra-Match Winning Probability: an Essay on the Glorious Uncertainty of Sports


  • Falter, J.-M.
  • Perignon, C.


The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intra-match winning probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Falter, J.-M. & Perignon, C., 2000. "Demand for Football and Intra-Match Winning Probability: an Essay on the Glorious Uncertainty of Sports," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2000.15, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  • Handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:2000.15

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Benhabib, Jess, 1996. "On the political economy of immigration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1737-1743, December.
    2. Berry, R Albert & Soligo, Ronald, 1969. "Some Welfare Aspects of International Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 778-794, Sept./Oct.
    3. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso, 2015. "Hooliganism and Demand for Football in Italy: Attendance and Counterviolence Policy Evaluation," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 123-137, May.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00971782 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
    4. Egon Franck & Stephan Nüesch, 2007. "The Role of Patriotism in Explaining TV Audience of National Team Games - Evidence from Four International Tournaments," Working Papers 0014, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA).
    5. Drayer, Joris & Rascher, Daniel A. & McEvoy, Chad D., 2012. "An examination of underlying consumer demand and sport pricing using secondary market data," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 448-460.
    6. Rottmann, Horst & Seitz, Franz, 2006. "Warum gehen die Leute in die Fußballstadien? Eine empirische Analyse der Fußball-Bundesliga," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 1, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    7. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne, 2015. "Grundlagen der Sportnachfrage: Theorie und Empirie der Einflussfaktoren auf die Zuschauernachfrage," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 94, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    8. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, EconWPA.
    9. Scelles, Nicolas & Duran, Christophe & Bonnal, Liliane & Goyeau, Daniel & Andreff, Wladimir, 2016. "Do all sporting prizes have a significant positive impact on attendance in a European national football league? Competitive intensity in the French Ligue 1," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 82-107, June.
    10. repec:cta:jcppxx:2173 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    13. Wladimir Andreff, 2014. "Building Blocks for a Disequilibrium Model of a European Team Sports League," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00971782, HAL.
    14. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Drayer, Joris & Shapiro, Stephen L., 2011. "An examination into the factors that influence consumers’ perceptions of value," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 389-398.
    16. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2013. "The determinants of football match attendance in Spanish football: an empirical analysis," Chapters,in: The Econometrics of Sport, chapter 9, pages 154-166 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Stephan Lenor & Liam J. A. Lenten & Jordi McKenzie, 2016. "Rivalry Effects and Unbalanced Schedule Optimisation in the Australian Football League," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 49(1), pages 43-69, August.
    18. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Stephan Nuesch, 2006. "Local Heroes and Superstars - An Empirical Analysis of Star Attraction in German Soccer," Working Papers 0046, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2007.
    19. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments : The Case Of Euro 2000?," Microeconomics 0503008, EconWPA.
    20. Y.E. Akgündüz & M.R. van den Berg, 2013. "Make or buy? Human capital accumulation strategies in European club football," Working Papers 13-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    21. Barajas, Angel, 2004. "Modelo de valoración de clubes de fútbol basado en los factores clave de su negocio
      [Valuation model for football clubs based on the key factors of their business]
      ," MPRA Paper 13158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Barajas, Angel & Crolley, Liz, 2005. "A model to explain support in Spanish football," MPRA Paper 3235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2007. "An analysis of Champions League match statistics," MPRA Paper 3605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2012. "Domanda Di Calcio E Violenza Negli Stadi: Un’Analisi Panel Sulla Serie A," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 8(2), pages 41-66, settembre.

    More about this item



    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty


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