IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Is the Taylor Rule Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence from a Semi-Parametric Modeling Approach

  • Nikolay Markov
  • Carlos de Porres
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the empirical specification of the Taylor Rule. Building on the New Keynesian paradigm, we derive a general nonlinear specification for the optimal policy rule that nests the standard linear Taylor Rule as a particular case. Using a novel semi-parametric modeling approach, we estimate both a standard and an augmented specification of the Taylor Rule for 8 OECD countries over the period 1976-2010 within a quarterly frequency. The augmented specification includes an interaction term between economic fundamentals and accounts explicitly for the interaction between economic fundamentals and the business cycle. The empirical results first point to a strong evidence for nonlinearity in the Taylor Rule for all countries. Second, our augmented specification outperforms both the standard linear and nonlinear Taylor Rules as it fits better the actual policy rate. Third, the performance of the augmented semi-parametric Taylor Rule is similar to the one of a linear policy rule with interest rate smoothing. An out-of-sample forecasting of the policy rate indicates that the nonlinear specification clearly outperforms the linear Taylor Rule for all countries using two different forecasting procedures and two measures of the economic outlook. The nonlinear interest rate rule thus provides an accurate guideline for the Central Bank decisions on the key interest rate, while at the same time avoids a possible misspecification problem that might arise when using interest rate smoothing in the policy rule.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.unige.ch/ses/dsec/repec/files/11052.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève in its series Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva with number 11052.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 63 pages
    Date of creation: May 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:11052
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    40 Boulevard du Pont-d'Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland

    Phone: +41 22 379 8263
    Fax: +41 22 379 82 93
    Web page: http://www.unige.ch/gsem/dsec/index.html
    Email:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-62, October.
    2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
    6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    9. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 254, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    12. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, 09.
    13. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt68s8157x, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    16. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
    17. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    18. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    19. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8355, 01-2013.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:11052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.