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Working Paper 05-12 - The methodology developed by the Federal Planning Bureau to produce long-term scenarios


  • Nicole Fasquelle
  • Koen Hendrickx
  • Christophe Joyeux
  • Igor Lebrun


The Federal Planning Bureau has a long tradition in providing long-term projections focused on the evolution of social expenditure within an overall framework of public finance, using the MALTESE system of models. This outlook is based on different scenarios: demographic, socio-economic, macroeconomic and welfare adjustment. The purpose of this publication is to describe the methodology for the construction of the socio-economic and macroeconomic scenarios and to illustrate it by presenting the main results from the 2011 projection for the Annual Report of the Study Group on Ageing.

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  • Nicole Fasquelle & Koen Hendrickx & Christophe Joyeux & Igor Lebrun, 2012. "Working Paper 05-12 - The methodology developed by the Federal Planning Bureau to produce long-term scenarios," Working Papers 1205, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1205

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    2. Andrea Bassanini & Ekkehard Ernst, 2002. "Labour Market Institutions, Product Market Regulation, and Innovation: Cross-Country Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 316, OECD Publishing.
    3. Lokshin, Boris & Mohnen, Pierre, 2007. "Measuring the Effectiveness of R&D Tax Credits in the Netherlands," MERIT Working Papers 025, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. ├ůsa Johansson & Chistopher Heady & Jens Arnold & Bert Brys & Laura Vartia, 2008. "Taxation and Economic Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 620, OECD Publishing.
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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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