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Working Paper 13-10 - Electric cars: Back to the future?

Author

Listed:
  • Danielle Devogelaer
  • Dominique Gusbin

Abstract

The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn't until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration. This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Danielle Devogelaer & Dominique Gusbin, 2010. "Working Paper 13-10 - Electric cars: Back to the future?," Working Papers 1013, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1013
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    File URL: https://www.plan.be/admin/uploaded/201006011003460.wp201013.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geir H. Bjertn├Žs, 2013. "Biofuel mandate versus favourable taxation of electric cars. The case of Norway," Discussion Papers 745, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Geir H. Bjertn├Žs, 2013. "Are tax exemptions for electric cars an efficient climate policy measure?," Discussion Papers 743, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electric vehicles; Electricity demand; Climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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