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Working Paper 10-09 - Impact de la crise financière sur le PIB potentiel de la Belgique

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Lebrun

Abstract

The concepts of potential growth and output gap are important tools to evaluate the state of the business cycle and to assess the supply-side capacity of an economy. They have also become an essential ingredient of the European fiscal surveillance process. However, the global economy is facing its most widespread crisis in the post-war era and consequently the uncertainty regarding the impact of the crisis on supply-side conditions is enormous. In this Working Paper we compare revisions on potential growth for Belgium made recently by the Federal Planning Bureau and international organizations. Those comparisons aim at highlighting the uncertainty associated with those revisions as well as understanding better some of the channels through which the crisis may reduce potential output.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Lebrun, 2009. "Working Paper 10-09 - Impact de la crise financière sur le PIB potentiel de la Belgique," Working Papers 0910, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:0910
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Output gap; Financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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