Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches to Modeling Level Shifts in the Presence of Outliers
We study alternative models for capturing abrupt structural changes (level shifts) in a times series. The problem is confounded by the presence of transient outliers. We compare the performance of non-Gaussian time-varying parameter models and multiprocess mixture models within a Monte Carlo experimental setup. Our findings suggest that once we incorporate shocks with thick-tailed probability distributions, the superiority of the multiprocess mixture models over the time-varying parameter models, reported in an earlier study, disappears. The behavior of the two models, both in adapting to level shifts and in reacting to transient outliers, is very similar.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 33(3):661-671, (2004).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (305) 348-2316
Fax: (305) 348-1524
Web page: http://casgroup.fiu.edu/Economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S., 1998. "Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 263-290.
- Prasad V. Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, 1998.
"Optimal univariate inflation forecasting with symmetric stable shocks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 659-670.
- Prasad V. Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, . "Optimal Univariate Inflation Forecasting with Symmetric Stable Shocks," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 116, Society for Computational Economics.
- Durbin, J. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1998.
"Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives,"
1998-142, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000. "Time series analysis of non-Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
- Gamble, James A & LeSage, James P, 1993. "A Monte Carlo Comparison of Time Varying Parameter and Multiprocess Mixture Models in the Presence of Structural Shifts and Outliers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 515-19, August.
- repec:dgr:kubcen:1998142 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sheng Guo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.