IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Does Foreign Direct Investment Synchronise Business Cycles? Results from a Panel Approach

  • Claudia Busl
  • Marcus Kappler

A considerable degree of business cycle synchronization is key to a successful operating currency union. The European Monetary Union as well as many other countries strives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) because of its reputation as being highly bene cial for the host economy. But stronger FDI linkages may also have a signi cant impact on business cycles and co-movement of these cycles between countries and therefore create a potential conflict between policies that promote FDI and the conduct of the common monetary policy. In this paper we empirically analyze the FDI channel in more detail revisiting the main determinants of synchronization. Previous studies were mainly interested in the long-run impact employing cross-sectional variation for identi cation. Their typical identification strategy, however, neglects the strongly time variant nature in the process of globalization in general and of FDI in specific. We extend the literature on the determinants of business cycle synchronization by estimating the impact of the determinants with true panel data and a suitable panel estimator. Results indicate that the trade channel is not as important as cross-section models suggest but that FDI may have the potential to increase co-movement of business cycles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: none

Paper provided by WWWforEurope in its series WWWforEurope Working Papers series with number 23.

in new window

Length: 38
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:feu:wfewop:y:2013:m:7:d:0:i:23
Contact details of provider:

Order Information: Postal: WWWforEurope Project Office Austrian Institute of Economic Research Arsenal Objekt 20 A-1030 Vienna

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John W. Budd & Jozef Konings & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2002. "Wages and International Rent Sharing in Multinational Firms," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 522, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
  3. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
  4. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2013. "World, Country, and Sector Factors in International Business Cycles," Studies in Economics 1307, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  5. Jörn Kleinert & Julien Martin & Farid Toubal, 2012. "The Few Leading the Many: Foreign Affiliates and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 2012-18, CEPII research center.
  6. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip Strahan, 2003. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 9704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
  9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
  11. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  12. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, 02.
  13. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines, 2004. "A Multinational Perspective on Capital Structure Choice and Internal Capital Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2451-2487, December.
  14. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2008. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2857-2888, November.
  15. Todd E. Clark & Eric Van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Ariel Burstein & Christopher Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2008. "Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 13731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Working Papers 132010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  18. Stéphane Dées & Nico Zorell, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 623-643, September.
  19. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2003. "International Rent Sharing and Domestic Labour Markets: A Macroeconomic Analysis," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-14, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  20. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
  21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
  22. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Fabienne Ilzkovitz & Adriaan Dierx & Viktoria Kovacs & Nuno Sousa, 2007. "Steps towards a deeper economic integration: the internal market in the 21st century," European Economy - Economic Papers 271, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  24. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Yeaple, Stephen & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2004. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," Scholarly Articles 3229098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  26. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  27. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "The Cyclical Nature of North-South FDI Flows," Business School Working Papers quince, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  28. Wacziarg, Romain & Imbs, Jean, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," Research Papers 1653, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  29. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053.
  31. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
  33. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
  34. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2005. "FDI and Trade – Two Way Linkages?," Working Papers 200505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  35. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
  36. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  37. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  38. Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
  39. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  40. L. Cavallari, 2009. "Exports and foreign direct investments in an endogenous-entry model with real and nominal uncertaint," Working Papers Prin 002, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  41. Hovakimian, Gayané, 2011. "Financial constraints and investment efficiency: Internal capital allocation across the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 264-283, April.
  42. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  43. Davis, J. Scott, 2014. "Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 99-111.
  44. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  45. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Laura Alfaro & Maggie Chen, 2011. "Surviving the Global Financial Crisis: Foreign Ownership and Establishment Performance," NBER Working Papers 17141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Guy V. G. Stevens & Robert E. Lipsey, 1988. "Interactions between domestic and foreign investment," International Finance Discussion Papers 329, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
  49. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
  50. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
  51. Lilia Cavallari, 2008. "Macroeconomic Interdependence with Trade and Multinational Activities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 537-558, 08.
  52. Marcus Kappler, 2011. "Business Cycle Co-movement and Trade Intensity in the Euro Area: is there a Dynamic Link?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(2), pages 247-265, April.
  53. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
  54. Baltagi, Badi H., 1981. "Simultaneous equations with error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 189-200, November.
  55. Cavallari Lilia, 2007. "A Macroeconomic Model of Entry with Exporters and Multinationals," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, September.
  56. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:feu:wfewop:y:2013:m:7:d:0:i:23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.