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On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
  • Mathias Moser
  • Anna Raggl

Abstract

We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration flows to total net migration. Using simple speci fications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP di fferences, distance or bilateral population. The usefulness of such models is exemplifi ed by combining estimated speci cations with population and GDP projections in order to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 5, WWWforEurope.
  • Handle: RePEc:feu:wfewop:y:2013:m:6:d:0:i:5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ahad, 2015. "The Determinants of International Migration in Pakistan: New Evidence from Combined Cointegration, Causality and Innovative Accounting Approach," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 159-175, December.
    2. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Huber & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Reaping the Benefits of Migration in an Ageing Europe," WWWforEurope Policy Brief series 7, WWWforEurope.
    3. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:108:y:2017:i:1:p:21-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2013. "“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”," AQR Working Papers 201309, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Oct 2013.
    5. Karl Aiginger & Kurt Kratena & Margit Schratzenstaller & Teresa Weiss, 2014. "Moving towards a new growth model," WWWforEurope Deliverables series 3, WWWforEurope.
    6. Gunther Tichy, 2015. "Protecting social inclusion and mobility in a low growth scenario," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 100, WWWforEurope.
    7. Uri Dadush, 2015. "Diaspora, Development and Morocco," Research papers & Policy papers 1518, OCP Policy Center.
    8. Ombaire Birundu, William, 2016. "Macroeconomic determinants of emigration from Kenya," MPRA Paper 77130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lifshits, Marina, 2016. "Forecasting of the global migration situation based on the analysis of net migration in the countries," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 41, pages 96-122.
    10. repec:aud:audfin:v:15:y:2017:i:148:p:667 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an ageing Europe: What are the challenges?," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 79, WWWforEurope.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bilateral migration flows; gravity model; nonlinearly aggregated models;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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