Quantitative Analysis of the "Rumor-based Economical Damage" for Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Products Caused by Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Reactor Accident (Japanese)
The Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Reactor Accident in March 2011 caused radioactive pollution problems of various agricultural, forestry and fishery products in nearby Prefectures and government of Japan took production and shipment stoppage order for these products immediately. More than two years have already elapsed and most of the stoppage order has been cancelled due to the confirmation of the safety or establishment of pollution checking and control systems, and most of their prices and shipment quantities are recovered before the accident level. But some commodities especially produced in Fukushima prefectures are still suffering low prices and refusal of purchasing due to the consumer's concern of pollution although they are not actually polluted at all; let us call this phenomena as "rumor-based economical damages". The Tokyo Electric Power Company is liable for the damage and paying compensation for the damage including the "rumor-based economical damages" in accordance with the guideline of Government of Japan, but they are not sure whether the "rumor-based economical damages" are still existing, due to the simplification and speed up of the procedures of compensation payment; although that may cause some problems that the compensation may be used out of the original purposes. The author developed two quantitative judgment criteria to test the existence of the "rumor-based economical damage" using statistical methodologies such as average treatment effect, and applied them to the 34 major commodities in agricultural, forestry and fishery area of their trading price and quantity recorded by Tokyo Central Wholesale Market, and then analyzed and evaluated the results. The author found that the "rumor-based economical damage" still exists in various commodities in Fukushima Prefecture, same as only limited commodities such as vegetables and fruits in Ibaragi Prefecture, but the author could not find the phenomena in most of the area in Ibaragi Prefecture and almost none in Tochigi Prefecture. Then the author recommends that simplified compensation payment procedures should be applied only for Fukushima Prefecture and certain areas in Ibaragi Prefectures because of the continuation of the "rumor-based economical damage," but further checking systems should be introduced in other areas and other Prefectures where no such phenomena is found.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Date of revision:|
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