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原子力発電設備投資・費用支出と稼働率・トラブル発生率の相関分析

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  • 戒能 一成

Abstract

日本における原子力発電は、現状53基が稼働し電力の約25%を供給する重要なエネルギー源となっている。しかし、地震などの不可抗力、設備上・運転上のトラブルや関連する規制対応などのため近年の平均稼働率は60%台で低迷している。 本稿においては、原子力発電設備投資・費用支出と稼動率・トラブル発生率の関係を明らかにするため、国内一般電気事業者の過去30年分の有価証券報告書上の関連項目を整理・集計し、設備投資・費用支出から稼働率・トラブル発生率への長期的な影響について分析した。 分析の結果、長期的・巨視的に見た場合、発電設備容量当設備投資額が稼動率に対し正の影響、対処可能トラブル発生率に対し概ね負の影響を及ぼしていること、発電設備容量当費用支出のうち修繕費が稼動率に対し正の影響、対処可能停止トラブル発生率に対して弱い負の影響を及ぼしており、また人件費が対処可能「非停止」トラブル発生率に対し負の影響を及ぼしていることなどが判明した。 一方、対処可能停止トラブル発生率では費用支出の量的側面よりも、原子力保安に関する組織的管理能力や内部統制など各事業者固有の質的側面の影響が大きいことが示唆された。当該結果を基礎に、追加的な設備投資・費用支出による稼動率向上対策の費用対効果を試算したところ、影響の発現が確率的である問題を伴うものの、長期的に高水準の修繕費支出を継続することは優れた正の費用対効果を以て稼動率向上をもたらすことが確認された。 今後2020年に向けて稼動率85%以上とする政策目標を実現していくためには、発電設備容量当修繕費を現状から10%以上増加させ少なくとも¥10,000/kW(2000年度実質)超の水準に長期間に亘り維持することが必要と推定され、政府は各事業者の取組を誘導・支援する政策措置を講じるべきと考えられる。

Suggested Citation

  • 戒能 一成, 2010. "原子力発電設備投資・費用支出と稼働率・トラブル発生率の相関分析," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 10054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:10054
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