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貿易政策を対象とした応用一般均衡分析

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  • 武田 史郎

Abstract

本稿は2つの内容から構成される。まず1つは、貿易政策を対象とした既存のCGE分析、特にそこで利用されているモデルのサーベイである。貿易CGE分析のサーベイは既に数多く存在しているが、その多くはシミュレーション結果の比較が中心で、モデルの構造はあまり深く扱っていない。これに対し本稿は代表的な貿易CGEモデルを幾つか例にとり、さまざまな側面からモデルの構造を比較している。特に、近年よく利用されるようになった不完全競争CGEモデルについては細部にわたり説明しているので、既存の貿易CGEモデルの特徴・傾向を容易に把握できるはずである。 さらに本稿では、シミュレーションに利用するモデルの選択が、貿易自由化のシミュレーション結果に及ぼす影響を分析している。サーベイの部分でも貿易自由化を対象にした既存のCGE分析を比較しているが、既存の分析ではモデル、データ、パラメータ、シナリオの全てが異なっているので、モデルの差がどれだけ結果に影響を与えているのかを判断することが難しい。そこで本稿では、モデル以外の部分をできる限り共通化した上で、さまざまなモデルの貿易自由化の効果を比較するというシミュレーションをおこない、モデルの選択によって自由化の効果がどのように変わるかを分析している。モデルとしては、1つの完全競争モデルと8つの不完全競争モデルを取り上げ、各モデルでの厚生、生産量、企業規模、企業数、マークアップ率等への効果を比較している。モデルの違いは分析対象となる地域の経済構造の差とみなせるので、本稿の分析から、経済構造、および経済構造に影響を与えるような政策と貿易自由化との関係についての示唆、政策的含意も導くことが可能である。

Suggested Citation

  • 武田 史郎, 2007. "貿易政策を対象とした応用一般均衡分析," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:07010
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