IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Effects of Risk and Shocks on School Progression in Rural Indonesia

  • Christopher M Gilbert


  • Francesca Modena


Many empirical and theoretical studies explore the effects of ex-ante risk and ex-post shocks on child education. While scholars share the opinion that shocks reduce investment in education, there is no general agreement over the effects of uncertainty on child schooling. This work uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey to explore the effects of ex-ante risk and ex-post shocks on school progression in rural Indonesia. We develop a model of household school transition decisions from elementary to junior education and from junior to senior school considering different sources of uncertainty related both to parental and adult income, and under the assumption that withdrawal from school is permanent. In this way, temporary interruptions in child schooling have long term impacts on the child human capital. We show that there is no simple answer to the question of how uncertainty affects schooling decisions. Econometric results suggest that uncertainty about parental income for the time the child may be potentially at school increases the probability of attending junior school while uncertainty about expected earnings from education has a negative and significant effect only for senior school attendance. Finally, positive (negative) income shocks increase (decrease) the probability of attending junior school.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Essex, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 679.

in new window

Date of creation: 10 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:679
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Wivenhoe Park, COLCHESTER. CO4 3SQ

Phone: +44-1206-872728
Fax: +44-1206-872724
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Discussion Papers Administrator, Department of Economics, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, U.K.

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:679. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Essex Economics Web Manager)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.