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Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty

  • Katsuya Takii

This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing one of the most important intangible assets in a firm: the ability to predict profitable investment opportunities. This paper shows theoretically how to measure the accuracy of information used to predict opportunities, and estimates the value of information in the context of a firm's investment decision problem. Empirical study confirms the theoretical results of the model: (1) prediction ability has a large positive impact on firm's expected profits; and (2) prediction ability increases the mean and the variance of the growth rate of a firm's capital stock.

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Paper provided by University of Essex, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 518.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:esx:essedp:518
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Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry L., 1984. "A Theoretical And Empirical Approach To The Value Of Information In Risky Markets," Staff Papers 13467, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  2. Katsuya Takii, 2000. "Prediction Ability," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1411, Econometric Society.
  3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
  4. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nicola Persico, 1997. "Information Acquisition in Auctions," UCLA Economics Working Papers 762, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  7. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  8. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Cummins, Jason & Hassett, Kevin & Oliner, Stephen, 1997. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations and Internal Funds," Working Papers 97-30, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Ueda, Kazuo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1986. "Financial Volatility and the q Theory of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(29), pages 11-27, February.
  11. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 1-74.
  12. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
  13. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  14. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Katsuya Takii, 2000. "Prediction ability and investment under uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 518, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  16. O'Brien, James M, 1981. "Estimating the Information Value of Immediate Disclosure of the FOMC Policy Directive," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1047-61, December.
  17. Jonathan Levin & Susan Athey, 2001. "The Value of Information in Monotone Decision Problems," Working Papers 01003, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  18. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
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