Currency Unions, Options, and Foreign Direct Investment
A multinational deciding on where to locate a foreign production facility may not be indifferent to the choice of location. Numerous variables such as production costs, market access, and local tax treatments will influence the decision as to where the plant is located. Another key variable in this decision is uncertainty. Following the work of Dixit, a firm has an option to make a risky investment, and if this investment is at least partially irreversible, the option has some positive value. As the uncertainty in the investment project increases, so too does the value of the option. When comparing two investment projects that are identical in all respects except their underlying profit volatility, the one with the greater degree of uncertainty will require a higher trigger level of profits to be exercised. This paper examines the impact of uncertainty in exchange rates on a multinational.s decision to locate within or outside a currency union. The option values and trigger levels of investment within and outside the union are derived as a function of exchange rate variances and correlations, transport costs, and market size.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://economics.emory.edu/home/journals/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-22, November.
- Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
- Goldberg, Linda S. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1994.
"Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty,"
94-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-73, November.
- Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989.
"Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E, 2000.
"Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 411-23, May.
- Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers 1335, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
- Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
"Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
- Takao Itagaki, 1981. "The Theory of the Multinational Firm under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 276-97, May.
- Gregory K. Bell & José M. Campa, 1997. "Irreversible Investments And Volatile Markets: A Study Of The Chemical Processing Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 79-87, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emo:wp2003:0516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sue Mialon)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.