Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant
In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avenida Lehendakari Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao|
Web page: http://www.ehu.es/fundamentosI/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael, 2004.
"Working Time and Employment Under Uncertainty,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, September.
- Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2002. "Working Time and Employment under Uncertainty," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 134, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2002. "Working Time and Employment under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 732, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Working Time and Employment under Uncertainty," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20409, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
- Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1978. "Project Valuation with Mean-Reverting Cash Flow Streams," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1317-1331, December.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2001. "Flexibility versus Commitment in Personnel Management," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 515-556, December.
- Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett, 1995.
"Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2002. "Option Value, Uncertainty, and the Investment Decision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 341-374, September.
- He, Hua. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1989.
"Investments in flexible production capacity,"
2102-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
- David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
- Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-238, May.
- Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:ikerla:200521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías Redondo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.