Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates
This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avenida Lehendakari Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao|
Web page: http://www.dfaeii.ehu.es
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995.
"Some Lessons from the Yield Curve,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
- Campbell, John, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Scholarly Articles 3163264, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1713, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997.
"The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," BIS Working Papers 28, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983.
"On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994.
"Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
- Chow, G.C., 1988.
"Rational Versus Adaptive Expectations In Present Value Models,"
328, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-84, August.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:200224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías Redondo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.