Bayesian learning in mis-specified models
A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays down the methodological groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question (Arrow, 1959; Fisher, 1983; Hahn, 1989). We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes' rule. The rational learning process thus constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Lehendakari, Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao|
Phone: + 34 94 601 3740
Fax: + 34 94 601 4935
Web page: http://www.ea3.ehu.es
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nyarko, Yaw, 1990.
"Learning In Mis-Specified Models And The Possibility Of Cycles,"
90-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Nyarko, Yaw, 1991. "Learning in mis-specified models and the possibility of cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 416-427, December.
- Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990.
"Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium,"
895, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- E. Kalai & E. Lehrer, 2010. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 529, David K. Levine.
- Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1991. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Working Papers 91-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 925, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hahn, F H, 1987. "Information, Dynamics and Equilibrium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 321-34, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:biltok:200005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.