Uncertainty and Real Options. Investment and Development of Fishing Resources (II)
[EN] The irreversibility of the investment expenditures in a fishery and the high degree of uncertainty attaching to the price of the fishing resources make the evaluation of investment opportunity in a fishery particularly difficult. The net-present-value proposes the following rule: "Invest in a project when the present value of its expected cash flows is at least as large as its cost". As the expenditures are largely irreversibles (sunk cost that cannot be recovered) and the fishing investment can be delayed, the previous rule is incorrect. Thus, in this paper it is used an option based approach to capital budgeting because under this technique management have valuable flexibility, giving the firm the opportunity to wait for new information to arrive about prices. The paper presents a model that determines when (at which price level) it is optimum for a firm invest in a fishery and what it is the value of the investment opportunity. The natural growth rate and production function of fishing resources are those of Shaefer model.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Lehendakari, Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao|
Phone: + 34 94 601 3740
Fax: + 34 94 601 4935
Web page: http://www.ea3.ehu.es
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1978. "Finite Difference Methods and Jump Processes Arising in the Pricing of Contingent Claims: A Synthesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 461-474, September.
- Geske, Robert & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1985. "Valuation by Approximation: A Comparison of Alternative Option Valuation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 45-71, March.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1977. "The valuation of warrants: Implementing a new approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 79-93, January.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Marcelo Salinas, 1998. "Evaluating Environmental Investments: A Real Options Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1059-1070, August.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985.
"Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions,"
NBER Working Papers
1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Valuing Derivative Securities Using the Explicit Finite Difference Method," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 87-100, March.
- Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1993. "A Compound Option Model of Production and Intermediate Inventories," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 517-40, October.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg, 1994. "An Option Valuation Analysis of Investment Choices by a Regulated Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 535-548, April.
- Courtadon, Georges, 1982. "A More Accurate Finite Difference Approximation for the Valuation of Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 697-703, December.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-65, March.
- McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
- Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 473-487, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:biltok:200002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.