Comparing Australian and US Corporate Default Risk using Quantile Regression
The severe bank stresses of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have underlined the importance of understanding and measuring extreme credit risk. The Australian economy is widely considered to have fared much better than the US and most other major world economies. This paper applies quantile regression and Monte Carlo simulation to the Merton structural credit model to investigate the impact of extreme asset value fluctuations on default probabilities of Australian companies in comparison to the USA. Quantile regression allows modelling of the extreme quantiles of a distribution which allows measurement of capital and PDs at the most extreme points of an economic downturn, when companies are most likely to fail. Daily asset value fluctuations of over 600 Australian and US investment and speculative entities are examined over a ten year period spanning pre-GFC and GFC. The events of the GFC also showed how the capital of global banks was eroded as defaults increased. This paper therefore also examines the impact of these fluctuating default probabilities on the capital adequacy of Australian and US banks. The paper finds highly significant variances in default probabilities and capital between quantiles in both Australia and the US, and shows how these variances can assist banks and regulators in calculating capital buffers to sustain banks through volatile times.Classification-JEL:
|Date of creation:||Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ecu.edu.au/schools/business/overview
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eide, Eric & Showalter, Mark H., 1998. "The effect of school quality on student performance: A quantile regression approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 345-350, March.
- Omar Arias & Walter Sosa-Escudero & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001.
"Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data,"
Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 7-40.
- Omar Arias & Kevin F. Hallock & Walter Sosa Escudero, 1999. "Individual Heterogeneity in the Returns to Schooling: Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression using Twins Data," Department of Economics, Working Papers 016, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Yannis Bilias & Roger Koenker, 2001. "Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 199-220.
- José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
- repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-05 is not listed on IDEAS
- Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
- Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecu:wpaper:2011-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Business Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.