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What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • García, Juan Angel

The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of potential explanatory variables through Bayesian model selection techniques and document their explanatory power at different horizons. At short horizons, actual inflation dynamics is the main determinant of BEIRs. At long horizons, financial variables (i.e. term spread, bond market volatility) become increasingly relevant, but confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. JEL Classification: C11, C52, E31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0996.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20090996
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  1. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999.
  2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  4. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2008. "Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the Euro area than in the United States?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Swanson, Eric, 2007. "Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0817, European Central Bank.
  9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
  11. Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 0544, European Central Bank.
  12. Ejsing, Jacob & García, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality," Working Paper Series 0830, European Central Bank.
  13. Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
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