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Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts

  • Mestre, Ricardo
  • McAdam, Peter

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate alternative residual-projection methods, to assess the importance of unaccounted-for breaks in forecast accuracy and off-model judgment. Conclusions reached are that simple mechanical residual adjustments have a significant impact of forecasting accuracy irrespective of the model in use, ostensibly due to the presence of breaks in trends in the data. The testing procedure and conclusions are applicable to a wide class of models and thus of general interest. JEL Classification: C52, E30, E32, E37

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0950.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080950
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  1. Adalid, Ramón & Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Siviero, Stefano, 2005. "The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0479, European Central Bank.
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  10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  11. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  15. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct.
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