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An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports

  • Berthou, Antoine

The reaction of exports to real exchange rate movements can differ according to the nature of the destination country. We derive and estimate a gravity equation for 20 OECD exporting countries and 52 developed and developing importing countries. We test how trade costs dampen the effect of real exchange rate movements on bilateral exports, and show that the elasticity on the real exchange rate is reduced when (i) the destination country has a low quality of institutions, (ii) this country is more distant, and (iii) the efficiency of customs is low in both the importing and exporting countries. These results are highly consistent with the existence of an hysteresis effect of real exchange rate movements on trade, as suggested by Baldwin and Krugman (1989). JEL Classification: F10, F32, D73

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0920.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080920
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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2005. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," Working Papers 2005-02, CEPII research center.
  3. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nunn, Nathan, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," Scholarly Articles 4686801, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Juan C. Botero & Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "The Regulation of Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1339-1382.
  6. Simeon Djankov & Caroline Freund & Cong S. Pham, 2010. "Trading on Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 166-173, February.
  7. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2004. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," IMF Working Papers 04/231, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
  10. Daniel Berkowitz & Johannes Moenius & Katharina Pistor, 2006. "Trade, Law, and Product Complexity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 363-373, May.
  11. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00118834, HAL.
  12. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2002. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Berthou, Antoine & Berman, Nicolas, 2006. "Financial Market Imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  15. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  16. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
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