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An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports

  • Berthou, Antoine

The reaction of exports to real exchange rate movements can differ according to the nature of the destination country. We derive and estimate a gravity equation for 20 OECD exporting countries and 52 developed and developing importing countries. We test how trade costs dampen the effect of real exchange rate movements on bilateral exports, and show that the elasticity on the real exchange rate is reduced when (i) the destination country has a low quality of institutions, (ii) this country is more distant, and (iii) the efficiency of customs is low in both the importing and exporting countries. These results are highly consistent with the existence of an hysteresis effect of real exchange rate movements on trade, as suggested by Baldwin and Krugman (1989). JEL Classification: F10, F32, D73

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0920.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080920
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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2007. "Institutional Quality and International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 791-819.
  3. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Soledad Zignago & Thierry Mayer, 2005. "Market Access in Global and Regional Trade," Sciences Po publications 2005-02, Sciences Po.
  6. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer & Juan Botero, 2003. "The Regulation of Labor," NBER Working Papers 9756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nathan Nunn, 2005. "Relationship Specificity, Incomplete Contracts and the Pattern of Trade," International Trade 0512018, EconWPA.
  9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2002. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Djankov, Simeon & Freund, Caroline & Pham, Cong S., 2006. "Trading on time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3909, The World Bank.
  11. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, S.J., 1999. "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 418, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Aug 2000.
  12. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
  13. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00650665, HAL.
  14. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06055, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  15. Daniel Berkowitz & Johannes Moenius & Katharina Pistor, 2006. "Trade, Law, and Product Complexity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 363-373, May.
  16. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00118834, HAL.
  17. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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