A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area
We propose a new core inflation measure for the Euro area which places the emphasis on the more lasting, i.e. persistent, price developments at a disaggregated level. The importance of each component of the HICP is reweighted according to its relative persistence, as measured by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or by an indicator of mean reversion. Unlike headline inflation, our baseline core inflation measure is highly correlated with ECB monetary policy decisions, which could mean that it contains ex ante (pre monetary policy) information on inflationary pressure. JEL Classification: E31
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010.
"Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
- Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2005. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Working Paper Series 0450, European Central Bank.
- Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence," Working Papers w200503, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Corvoisier, Sandrine & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation: how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 0451, European Central Bank.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 0005, European Central Bank.
- Diron, Marie & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 0564, European Central Bank.
- Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005.
"A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-60, June.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999.
"Evaluating core inflation indicators,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles,
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
- Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
- Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Kapetanios, George, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Working Paper Series 0402, European Central Bank.
- Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
- Perron, P., 1989.
"Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean,"
347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
- Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 0463, European Central Bank.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
- Alan Mankikar & Jo Paisley, 2004. "Core inflation: a critical guide," Bank of England working papers 242, Bank of England.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.